sydney hobart yacht race storm

Sydney to Hobart 1998 tragedy 20 years on — the east coast low that changed marine forecasting

By Doyle Kate

ABC Weather

Topic: Weather

The 1998 Sydney to Hobart ended in disaster. On the Business Post Naiad yacht, two crew died. ( Supplied: Chris Timms )

As the yachts left Sydney Harbour on a sunny morning 20 years ago today, it would have been difficult to imagine the tragedy in store.

Strong winds were forecast and conditions worsened as the participants of the 1998 Sydney to Hobart set sail into what would become a severe east coast low.

In the ensuing days six sailors died, five yachts sank, more than 60 yachts retired and 55 participants had to be recued by helicopter.

East coast lows are unusual but not unprecedented. We typically see very intense east coast lows once every two or three years.

Dr Harald Richter, a senior research scientist at the Bureau of Meteorology, said east coast lows were big eddies in the atmosphere that were a few hundred kilometres across and occurred to the east of Australia.

They are not the same as more common lows that form over the Southern Ocean or lows that form over tropical waters.

"They're, in my mind, a mixture between lows that need cold air and warm air to spin up a big vortex and tropical cyclones.

"East coast lows sit in between those two," Dr Richter said.

The other factor that tends to make east coast lows infamous is that they impact on highly populated areas.

"Those east coast lows, when they're formed near the coast, don't go unnoticed. There's a lot of real estate to damage, there's boats to affect, there are beaches to erode," Dr Richter said.

"We need to look out for them."

In 1998, the biggest impacts were felt off the coast.

Jane Golding, manager of weather services at the Bureau of Meteorology's New South Wales office, said if there had been no yachts or ships in the area, the impact of the 1998 east coast low would have been a lot lower.

"It was really bad timing and really unfortunate it was in the middle of the yacht race [and] such a high profile one with so many participants," she said.

How the 1998 low developed

On Christmas Day 1998 there was a high pressure system directing warm north-easterly winds over south-east Australia and there was a cold front approaching Tasmania from the Southern Ocean.

Warm air from the Tasman Sea colliding with cold air from Antarctica caused the low to intensify rapidly. ( Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology )

"There were two things the high did, which is pretty common with east coast lows," Ms Golding said.

"It provided a warm, moist air as the front came up from the Southern Ocean carrying cold polar air.

"The difference in those two air masses resulted in the system really intensifying."

She said that the high pressure system also stopped the developing low from moving, so it hung around and just kept intensifying in the same area for about 24 hours.

"On top of that we also saw some high sea surface temperatures off the southern New South Wales coast."

She said that leading up to the race, the computer modelling that the forecasters were accessing was variable.

"They were looking at eight different computer models and they were all kind of saying different things," Ms Golding said.

"None of the ones we were accessing were pointing to the intensity of the storm.

"But that's similar to what could happen these days.

"With east coast lows, it's the closer you get to its formation that the guidance really starts to pinpoint intensity and location."

At the start of the race there was a gale warning out and a few hours later it was upgraded to storm-force. These warnings and how they were communicated were later investigated .

The east coast low developed on the morning of December 27 and moved through the strait during the day. ( Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology )

During the afternoon of December 26, 1998 the cold front approached eastern Bass Strait.

"The cold front had interacted with a trough just ahead of the front and that was the time where we saw this complex low pressure system start to form and several really small-scale features embed within it," Ms Golding said.

Not long after that, the east coast low rapidly intensified.

"That rapid development occurred because the really cold air coming up from the polar stream reached Tasmania," Ms Golding said.

"That really cold air interacted with this really warm air stream which was coming in from the Tasman Sea.

"On top of that there was some heat above and energy available from the warm ocean that was in the area at the time."

According to Ms Golding, it was the yachts that had reached as far as the Bass Strait and Tasmania on December 27, 1998 that faced the brunt of the storm.

By December 28, the low had moved quickly eastwards into the Tasman Sea and the winds had started to abate.

Twenty-four hours may not sound like long but it is a long time to be out at sea in a little boat being battered by winds equivalent to category two cyclone strength.

Ms Golding said wind gusts of 55 to 65 knots (roughly 100 to 120 kilometres per hour) were observed and gusts of between 70 to 75 knots (130 to 140 kph) were recorded — the equivalent of a category two cyclone. That is just what was recorded, gusts may have been stronger.

Waves recorded at the Esso Kingfish B Platform oil rig in Bass Strait during the 1998 Sydney to Hobart. ( Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology )

Ms Golding said there were a few little circulations among the bigger storm, so there was a tiny easing for a short period on December 27, 1998 before the winds increased again.

"The wind whipped up really high seas. The waves were quite steep and there was a strong southerly current," she said.

"What we call the significant wave height was six to seven metres and you get higher waves and smaller waves in there.

"The highest recorded on this oil rig was 11 to 12 metres but there were reports from ships that were even higher than that.

"There were reports of waves up in the 10 to 15m range, which is a few storeys if you're looking at a building.

"Imagine those waves [being] quite steep, then the yachts were quite small comparably. [It was] a really tragic event being stuck in that," Ms Golding said.

On top of the wind and the waves there was also a thunderstorm with heavy rain and very low visibility.

Which is worse: storm or gale?

Gusts of up to 64 knots, or 119kph, were recorded at the Esso Kingfish oil rig in Bass Strait. ( Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology )

The feedback from the investigations following the race were less about problems with the forecast itself and more about the communication pathways and the terminology used.

"A key take-home message is the terminology that we used wasn't well understood," Ms Golding said.

"Which meant that when the forecast warnings were upgraded they may not have been heeded because of the terminology we were using."

The key example from 1998 is that a "storm-force warning" means that winds averaging 48 to 63 knots (89 to 117kph) should be expected, which is worse than a "gale warning" and can mean that you should expect gusts to be higher.

"We know that is a category two tropical cyclone strength, but should we assume that everyone does? No."

Lessons learnt

Now the race has a more comprehensive safety briefing.

"We go through the terminology," Ms Golding said.

"We provide some info. around that, some definitions around the terms that we use, [and we do] other things like we are forecasting the mean speed so you can expect gusts higher than this.

"It won't be written on the forecast because there is a limit to how many words you can use before it's overwhelming.

"We also include a preamble at the header of all of our coastal waters forecasts even outside this race."

There are many other things that have changed in the past 20 years.

Ms Golding said the communication pathways between the Bureau and race organisers were now stronger and better defined.

"Technology today compared with technology 20 years ago, it's completely different. It's easier to transmit data to folks offshore in yachts. It's easier for them to receive not just our data but other data and to be more contactable as well," she said.

"On top of that the computer modelling has improved dramatically in the last 20 years, which means we are starting off at a better place."

Could we see 1998 conditions again?

Ms Golding said that we could "absolutely" see a storm like 1998 affect the Sydney to Hobart yacht race again.

"I don't want to say it's unlikely because it's no less likely to form on December 26 and 27 than December 22 or 23 or January 30 or 31."

But she said it was unusual and there had not been one like it during the Sydney to Hobart since.

What the race does see more often is a 'southerly buster': a sudden and powerful southerly wind change.

"Normally [you] get pretty fresh northerlies ahead of it and then your southerly buster could have 50-60 knot gusts," Ms Golding said.

"The difference with your buster is it's a lot shorter lived."

This year's forecast

This year the forecast is for a quick start to the race as a high sits in the western Tasman Sea and a trough over inland New South Wales, directing northerly winds down the coast.

In the pre-race press conference on Friday there was still some uncertainty about how the trough and a front could impact the later part of the race, but the Bureau's spokesman Simon Lewis said there was no indication of a significant low pressure system developing during the race.

Other east coast lows

Pasha Bulker 2007: it was the morning Newcastle will never forget. As the sun hit the shore, locals woke up to find a massive coal ship right on the beach . The June storm resulted in nine deaths on the New South Wales central coast. The ship was pummelled by the waves for three weeks before it was finally refloated in a salvage operation that cost the Japanese owners $1.8 million.

The Pasha Bulker ran aground off Nobbys Beach, Newcastle, on June 8, 2007. ( ABC TV )

• April 2015: three people died when an east coast low battered Sydney, the Hunter and the Central Coast. At the time, the Bureau said gusts got up to 135kph but Dr Richter said the main impact from the storm was the flooding. In a 24 hour period, 119mm was recorded on Sydney Observatory Hill.
• June 2016: this storm is best remembered for th e images of a swimming pool falling into the ocean. Five people died during the storm, which brought heavy rainfall and caused coastal erosion. Impacts were felt from Queensland to Tasmania.

• SYDNEY, NSW
• MELBOURNE, VIC
• HOBART, TAS
• BRISBANE, QLD
• ADELAIDE, SA
• CANBERRA, ACT

Sydney to Hobart deadly storm survivors remember mates after 25 years

• New South Wales

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Fatal storm haunts Sydney-Hobart yacht race 20 years on

Sydney (AFP) –

Issued on: 20/12/2018 - 05:23

The gruelling Sydney to Hobart blue-water classic will take a poignant turn this year when it marks two decades since six sailors died in a horror storm -- one of Australia's worst sporting disasters.

Wild weather is a regular hazard in the epic contest, in which a fleet of yachts depart Sydney Harbour on Boxing Day, Cdecember 26, in a 628-nautical-mile (1,163-kilometre) dash down Australia's east coast towards the island state of Tasmania.

But the 1998 edition of the annual race, held since 1945, had particularly adverse conditions, with mountainous seas and roaring winds in the treacherous Bass Strait tossing vessels around like rag dolls.

Six men died, five boats sank and 55 sailors were rescued when the deep depression exploded over the Tasman Sea. While 115 boats started the race, only 44 finished.

To mark the occasion, there will be a minute of silence among competitors on the second day of the race.

"It's not just this moment of silence, we think about it every year," said Mark Richards, skipper of eight-time line honours winner Wild Oats XI.

"We have a lot of respect for the families and the people who lost their lives in that race. We'll certainly be thinking of all those guys."

The absence of a public memorial reflects the magnitude of the trauma that hit the sailing fraternity.

Steve Walker, who competed in 1998, told the Hobart Mercury "the families (of the victims) have moved on and it's painful having the memories brought up again... We don't need to do something formal".

American billionaire Larry Ellison, owner-skipper of 1998 line honours winner Sayonara, was so appalled by the tragedy he vowed never to return.

Memories that stuck with Ed Psaltis, who skippered overall handicap honours winner AFR Midnight Rambler, include the constant scream of the winds and the sound of spray hitting the hull like a machine gun firing bullets.

Yet the competitors have also hailed sweeping changes put in place since in one of the world's toughest yacht races.

- 'A dangerous line' -

Back then, there was no GPS and boats reported their positions twice a day via radio, with the storm hampering communications and the location of distressed vessels.

Yacht tracking was introduced in 1999 and today, anyone can follow the fleet online. New rules on crew experience and training and on mandatory safety equipment were also implemented.

"To the extent that we can make this race safe, we really have put in place every possible measure, rule, regulation, to try and help that," the Commodore of organiser the Cruising Yacht Club of Australia, Paul Billingham, told AFP.

Armed with more accurate and timely information about weather conditions, sailors say they are better prepared.

"In 2010, there was two huge fronts that came through and the same again in 2015," owner-skipper of last year's line honours winner LDV Comanche Jim Cooney told AFP.

"But we knew about it, we were prepared for it and there was minimum damage to any boats and certainly no boats lost in those races."

And even though the battle to be the fastest vessel ramps up every year, Cooney said supermaxis like his speedy 100-footer are built to withstand a severe battering.

"If you weren't careful in the design, then yes, you can cross a dangerous line. However, Comanche was built to sail around the world, it wasn't built to sail on flat water in comfortable conditions," the race veteran said.

"I actually feel safer on Comanche then I have on any of my smaller boats over the years... It's a very strong boat and a very stable boat."

With the volatility of the weather a signature part of the race, it's impossible to remove every risk, added Billingham.

"At the end of the day, it's unpredictable... That is, I guess, the risk of the sport," he said.

"That's why they are out there, for the challenge which is the Sydney to Hobart yacht race every year."

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Sydney-Hobart yacht race fleet sails into stormy seas

SYDNEY – More than 100 yachts set off on the annual Sydney-Hobart race on Dec 26, with storms and hail threatening to lash sailors in one of the world’s most gruelling ocean events.

Thunder and rain lifted just minutes before the start at a slightly misty Sydney Harbour as spectators lined the waterfront or crowded onto boats to get a better view of the dramatic opening moments.

At the sound of the starting gun, 103 yachts tacked in light winds in search of the best line out of the harbour and an early lead in the punishing, 628-nautical-mile (1,200km) crossing to the Tasmanian state capital.

Four hours into the race, the favourite for line honours, 100-foot supermaxi Andoo Comanche, had taken a lead of less than one nautical mile.

Andoo Comanche, which was first across the line in 2022, holds the 2017 race record of one day, 9hr, 15min and 24sec.

“We back our boat in any conditions to win the race,” Andoo Comanche skipper John Winning told a news conference ahead of the event, widely considered to be one of the most difficult yacht races in the world.

While preferring weather that favours the quickest possible race, Winning insisted his yacht was “fast in all conditions”.

In second place was rival supermaxi LawConnect, runner-up in the previous edition of the race.

“I always want to win the race and to actually, finally win it would be a dream come true,” LawConnect skipper Christian Beck told Channel Nine news ahead of the race.

“The start is awesome and the pub at the end is awesome, so I like the whole event.”

Wild Thing 100, skippered by Grant Wharington, was in third place.

Weather is pivotal in the blue water classic, first held in 1945 on Boxing Day.

This year marks the 25th anniversary of a fatal storm that tore into the 1998 race fleet, whipping up mountainous seas and wild winds in which six men died, five boats sank and 55 sailors were rescued.

For the 2023 edition, weather forecasters are predicting storms, lightning, hail and strong winds as the boats sail southwards down the New South Wales coast on their way to Hobart.

Sailors face a risk of “severe” thunderstorms, said the Bureau of Meteorology’s senior meteorologist Gabrielle Woodhouse.

In a final briefing on race morning, Woodhouse predicted easterly but “very erratic” winds in the early stages as a low pressure system creates strong winds, heavy downpours and possible hail, hindering visibility.

Vessels still on the water on Dec 29 could face a south-easterly swell with waves of three to five metres, she said.

David Witt, skipper of the Hong Kong-owned SHK Scallywag, said the forecast looked “very exciting” for his crew.

“So it’s all or nothing for the Scallywags yet again,” he said in a social media message to supporters before the race.

In 2022, Andoo Comanche crossed the finish line first with a time of one day, 11 hours, 56min and 48sec.

But the overall winner of the race under a handicap system was 52-foot Celestial, which claimed the coveted Tattersall Cup.

Another 52-footer, Caro, and the 72-foot URM Group, are also among the favourites for overall race honours in 2023.

Ten international yachts are competing, with three from New Zealand (Allegresse, Caro and Niksen), two from Hong Kong (Antipodes and SHK Scallywag) and other entrants from France (Teasing Machine), Germany (Rockall 8), Ireland (Cinnamon Girl – Eden Capital), New Caledonia (Eye Candy) and the United States (Lenny).

Nine-time line honours-winning supermaxi Wild Oats XI did not enter. AFP

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Rolex Sydney Hobart Race

Maxis jockey for position at the start in Sydney Harbour. Photo: Carlo Borlenghi / Rolex

The Rolex Sydney Hobart race is one of the most famous yacht races in the world hosted by the Cruising Yacht Club of Australia in conjunction with the Royal Yacht Club of Tasmania starting in Sydney, New South Wales, on Boxing Day and finishing in Hobart, Tasmania.

The Sydney Hobart is considered one of the big 600 milers and is a key offshore race in the calendar for any number of big boat campaigns, sitting alongside other races of a similar length including the Fastnet Race , The Caribbean 600 and the Middle Sea Race .

The inaugural edition of the 630 nautical mile race in 1945 had nine starters. John Illingworth’s Rani , built at Speers Point was the winner, taking six days, 14 hours and 22 minutes.

Records fell for many years in the early days of the race, but in 1975 Kialoa from the United States set a new course record that would stand for fully 21 years before being beaten by the German yacht Morning Glory in 1996, and then only by a dramatic 29 minutes.

The race record now stands at 1 day 9 hours 15 minutes and 24 seconds and was set by the 100ft super-maxi Comanche in 2017.

Comanche is one of only a handful of yachts to have taken line honours in the race on multiple occasions, having now crossed the finish line into Hobart first on three separate occasions.

But the boat most associated with race wins is another super-maxi, Wild Oats XI which has won the race a hugely impressive nine times, including a four race winning streak between 2004-2008.

The Sydney Hobart is renowned for tough weather, with the Bass Strait, and the waters of the Pacific Ocean immediately to its east often experiencing high winds and difficult seas.

Even though the race is held in the Australian summer, southerly buster storms often make the it cold, bumpy, and very challenging for the crew. It is typical for a considerable number of yachts to retire, often at Eden on the New South Wales south coast, the last sheltered harbour before Flinders Island.

The 1998 Sydney Hobart was marred by tragedy when, during an exceptionally strong storm (which had similar strength winds to a lower-category hurricane), five boats sank and six people died.

Of the 115 boats that started, only 44 made it to Hobart. As a result, the crew eligibility rules were tightened, requiring a higher minimum age and experience.

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Watch: Near collision and early retirement in sensational start to Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race

Protests, twists and drama galore at start of Rolex Sydney Hobart

There’s been a dramatic start to the Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race with a near collision, shouting, swearing and calls for a protest.

In spectacular and crazy scenes, two race favourites were forced into penalty turns in a wild opening to the 77th race.

WATCH IN THE VIDEO ABOVE: Protests, twists and drama galore at start of Rolex Sydney Hobart

The overwhelming race favourites were the big four supermaxis - LawConnect, Black Jack, Andoo Comanche, and Wild Oats - and they were all vying for the early lead as the boats headed up Sydney Harbour.

But Andoo Comanche was involved in a very close call with Wild Oats and both supermaxis did penalty turns amid shouts of ‘protest’.

Andoo Comanche did a penalty turn after bumping a turning mark while Wild Oats decided to do one after great confusion and debate.

Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race begins

“Furl, furl, we are going to do a 720 (penalty turn),’’ Wild Oats skipper Mark Richards shouted.

‘“I honestly think we’re in trouble.”

During all the chaos, there was also an early retirement after Avalanche damaged its bowsprit and made the call to pull the pin.

Wild Oats XI has returned to the race this year and is looking for a ridiculous tenth line-honours title.

Earlier, Andoo Comanche’s skipper John Winning Jr had opened up on what what to expect and avoid based on his previous experiences.

Finishing the Sydney to Hobart is one challenge, but surviving the post-race celebrations involving alcohol-fuelled, sweaty and unwashed sailors can be another ordeal, according Willing Jr.

He didn’t hold back when fronting the media a few hours before the race’s start about what awaited those intrepid enough to venture into Hobart’s Customs House, the traditional post-race meeting place.

“Will McCarthy off Black Jack has already announced that he is in charge,” Winning said.

“Last time at Customs house when I was there, I think he got me into a headlock and brought me back into the bar and said ‘you’re not going anywhere whippersnapper’.

“He’s a veteran of Customs House and he says we’ve got to follow his lead and I’ll be doing my best to try and avoid him.

“It will celebrating, just be good spirits and having fun and hugging our loved ones and seeing the family and hopefully some sleep and praying for a shower.

“It stinks when you’re down in Customs House when you’re in there with all those sailors that are getting off straight off the boat.

“If you ever go down there to Customs House, if you are there, put some sort of nose plug on.

“There’s a lot of sweaty sailors that have been at sea with no deodorant and no showers for days and it just gets worse and worse

“We grow with the smell from here to there so it doesn’t really matter to us too much. But I remember one day when I was on Loyal I went away and had a shower and came back in clean clothes and ‘phooor, what is that?’ it was like walking into a pig farm.”

Winning said it seemed less likely that his boat’s 2017 race record of one day nine hours 15 minutes 24 seconds would be broken.

“The conditions are just a bit lighter than it was yesterday and we’re going to be early to the transition down the bottom, which is going to hurt us a little bit, we might not see as much wind the whole way down as we thought,” Winning said.

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The Sydney Hobart Is a Dream to Win and Formidable to Navigate

It’s complicated and difficult, but they keep coming back because, said one, ‘it’s the hardest.’

By David Schmidt

In sailboat racing, the fastest route between Port A and Port B is rarely a straight line.

This is certainly true of the annual Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race, which starts on Monday. This classic test of seamanship and teamwork involves many complex navigational decisions, including negotiating the course’s mix of coastal and offshore waters, its fast-moving westerly weather fronts and the generally south-flowing East Australian Current.

Navigators invest huge amounts of time and bandwidth before and during the race, leveraging navigation tools and experience to determine how weather and current will affect the course’s challenges.

Lindsay May, who has served as navigator or skipper on boats that have won the race’s top trophy, the Tattersall Cup, three times, described the race’s 628-nautical-mile track as six navigational tests. There’s the start and the sprint out of Sydney Harbor, past the Sydney headlands; the run down Australia’s coast; crossing Bass Strait, which separates Australia from Tasmania; the stretch down Tasmania’s eastern coastline; the crossing of Tasmania’s Storm Bay; and the final leg up the River Derwent.

Bungle any of these and a team’s results can go south, fast.

In addition, teams sometimes elect to sail extra miles to reach faster or safer conditions, or sacrifice mileage for tactical positioning relative to the fleet. “You invest those extra miles sailed with the expectation that you’ll get a return on them,” said Stan Honey, an America’s Cup and Volvo Ocean Race-winning navigator who helped LDV Comanche set the race’s elapsed-time record in 2017. “The job of the navigator today is making these risk-adjusted investment decisions.”

Getting this right — or less wrong than the competition — demands that navigators possess world-class meteorological and technical skills to select the fastest course for their yacht.

This isn’t trivial.

“The mixture of the East Australian Current, the coastlines of New South Wales and Tasmania with Bass Strait in between, then Storm Bay, and then finally the Derwent River make the racecourse a real navigational-meteorological challenge,” said Will Oxley, a navigator who has also won the Tattersall Cup three times, and who plans to navigate the 100-foot Andoo Comanche (previously LDV Comanche) in this year’s race.

Weather is notorious in the Sydney Hobart. From 1945 to 2021, the race had an average attrition rate of 15 percent . In 2021, 38 yachts out of the race’s starting fleet of 88 retired, many because of equipment or vessel damage.

“The navigator’s role now is largely about weather and strategy, and it’s very much now electronically driven,” said Adrienne Cahalan, a two-time Tattersall Cup-winning navigator who plans to start her 30th race aboard the 39-foot Sunrise this year.

Local knowledge can also be important. “Just because of having lived and breathed the weather systems in this country, that will give you an advantage,” Cahalan said.

So will modern navigation tools. These include computers, software and lots of data.

Before yachts even leave the dock, navigators leverage these tools and information from the yacht’s instruments, its designer and handicap-rating systems (think golf), to create vessel-specific models called polar diagrams.

These predict how fast the boat will sail at different wind angles and velocities. Navigators then use digitized weather and current forecasts — called gridded binary files or GRIBs — which are prepared by official meteorological services. Navigators also use the yacht’s polar diagrams and performance information about each of its sails to advise the skipper on which ones to bring.

Navigators rely on the yacht’s satellite-communications equipment to continually download GRIBs as different models are released. These are fed to computers running weather-routing software to help determine the fastest route based on a specific yacht’s polar diagrams in the forecasted conditions.

Navigators game out multiple routing options based on the latest GRIBs and their yacht’s position relative to the competition.

“In the 2019 Sydney to Hobart race, there was a split breeze in Storm Bay,” Oxley said. “The high-res GRIB files did not show this perfectly, but they did provide strong evidence that it existed.” The team chose a route on the west side of Storm Bay, rather than taking the more standard routing. “This paid off and we managed to win,” he said.

This analysis is critical for making the most important decisions. For Honey, who plans to navigate the 100-foot Hamilton Island Wild Oats this year, these include making calls on how far offshore to sail after passing the Sydney headlands, how to handle the East Australian Current, how close to Tasmania to sail and how to approach Tasman Island.

Even with the polar diagrams, up-to-date meteorological data and weather-routing tools, human expertise still matters.

“The global met models do a great job these days in managing the big picture,” Oxley said. “Where they fall down is in managing the fine detail and dealing with land shadows and breezes.”

Others agree.

“If the forecast is wrong, it won’t be entirely wrong, but it will be wrong by being too fast or too slow, or windy or too light,” Honey said. “You have to think through what kind of characteristic errors you expect to see in the different forecast models, and that’s just experience.”

And it’s also where eyeballs can supersede screens.

“It is important to get your head out of the boat and look around,” said May, who plans to start his 49th race this year aboard the 74-foot Kialoa II . “The art of navigation is to be aware of the science, but the same time use your experience and see and sense what is happening.”

This often entails studying the clouds and sky, and peering between the lines of GRIB data.

“I do believe that intuition and gut feeling is an important part of decision making,” Cahalan said. She added that while contemporary weather modeling was clever, humans still needed to assess what the data presents.

“That’s the experience that you bring to the team, that’s where you bring value,” she said.

Wind whispering aside, navigators must also foster trust with the team’s brain trust.

“For me, the best system is where I spend a lot of time before the race laying out the plan with the whole crew, and especially the key decision makers, and then working to execute the plan,” Oxley said. “I always benefit from watch leaders asking questions and probing my recommendations to improve the final decisions.”

Crew knowledge also matters. Honey said he briefed the on-deck crew every two or three hours. “The better they understand it, the better they’ll sail,” he said, adding that this helps the sailors negotiate gusts, lulls and unexpected squalls.

Communication is especially important if a strategic move that results in a short-term loss of position is made for better position later, or when decisions are not obvious. “I make it clear whether I am 90 percent strong on a recommendation, or whether it is closer to 50-50,” Oxley said.

And in the Sydney Hobart, jump-ball calls can apply until the finish line.

While most of the race’s miles involve exposed coastal or offshore sailing, the out-flowing River Derwent stands as the race’s final crux.

May described the Derwent as miles of frustration, a time when navigators need to play their lucky cards. Arrival time is crucial. Most afternoons and evenings feature a useful breeze, while most nights are calm. “Light winds will only allow you to ghost along the shore, keeping out of the adverse current,” May said of nighttime arrivals.

Cahalan added that many races had been won and lost in the river.

Add up the race’s variables, coupled with its attrition rate, and there’s little question why this race attracts world-class navigators, who keep returning.

“It’s just so complicated and so difficult for the navigator,” Honey said. “It’s my favorite race because it’s the hardest.”

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Fatal Storm: The 54th Sydney to Hobart Yacht Race - 10th Anniversary Edition Kindle Edition

• Print length 415 pages
• Language English
• Sticky notes On Kindle Scribe
• Publisher HarperSports
• Publication date April 1, 2010
• File size 3349 KB
• Page Flip Enabled
• Word Wise Enabled
• Enhanced typesetting Enabled
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Product details

• ASIN ‏ : ‎ B003H0MGO8
• Publisher ‏ : ‎ HarperSports; 10th anniversary ed edition (April 1, 2010)
• Publication date ‏ : ‎ April 1, 2010
• Language ‏ : ‎ English
• File size ‏ : ‎ 3349 KB
• Text-to-Speech ‏ : ‎ Enabled
• Screen Reader ‏ : ‎ Supported
• Enhanced typesetting ‏ : ‎ Enabled
• X-Ray ‏ : ‎ Not Enabled
• Word Wise ‏ : ‎ Enabled
• Sticky notes ‏ : ‎ On Kindle Scribe
• Print length ‏ : ‎ 415 pages
• #114 in History of Australia & New Zealand
• #198 in Boating (Kindle Store)
• #211 in Natural Disasters (Kindle Store)

About the author

Robert mundle.

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